Prediction market arbitrage (realistic view)

Prediction market arbitrage sounds free—until fees, latency, settlement mismatch, and capital lockups show up. Here’s a clear-eyed guide.

True arb vs relative value

Same event, same rules, locked prices across venues can be arb-like. Different rules are relative value—not free money.

Practical risks

Transfer delays, account limits, and resolution disputes kill paper profits. Use Polifly to document assumptions carefully.

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Educational software only. Not financial advice. Markets involve risk of loss.

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