September 2026 · Guides
Getting started with Polifly in 10 minutes
A short onboarding path so you feel the product without drowning in features.
Read more →Blog
Product updates and craft notes from the Polifly team—Polymarket, Kalshi, and prediction-market AI. Not financial advice.
Categories
Latest
September 2026 · Guides
Polifly product philosophy: intelligence, not custody
We optimize for clearer decisions. You keep the keys.
Read more →September 2026 · Trading
When not to trade prediction markets
The best trade is often no trade. Write your skip rules.
Read more →September 2026 · AI
Superforecasting habits for market traders
Forecasting is a skill. Markets are just a loud scoreboard.
Read more →August 2026 · Strategies
Prediction market arbitrage myths (fees edition)
If it looks free on a spreadsheet, add frictions until it doesn’t.
Read more →August 2026 · Polymarket
How to think about handpicked markets (without cargo-culting)
Curated lists are starting points. Your checklist finishes the job.
Read more →August 2026 · Strategies
Build a 25-minute daily prediction-market research block
Consistency beats marathon sessions. Here’s a tight daily block.
Read more →August 2026 · AI
AI confidence is not your edge
Confidence scores feel like certainty. Markets price uncertainty. Stay humble.
Read more →July 2026 · Trading
Bankroll rules for prediction markets that you’ll actually follow
Fancy models won’t save a broken bankroll. Write rules you can obey bored.
Read more →July 2026 · Crypto
Crypto event markets: narrative vs settlement
Timeline Twitter is not the resolution source. Read the contract.
Read more →July 2026 · Sports Markets
Sports prediction markets and the fandom tax
If you can’t fade your team, you don’t have an edge—you have a hobby.
Read more →July 2026 · Election Markets
Election prediction markets: process over narratives
Election markets reward calm process. Narratives are the trap.
Read more →July 2026 · Prediction Markets
Polymarket vs Kalshi: think liquidity first
Venue wars miss the point. Trade where the book and rules fit your edge.
Read more →June 2026 · Guides
The resolution-rules checklist every trader skips
AI can’t save you from ambiguous rules. Read them first. Always.
Read more →June 2026 · Trading
Why paper trade prediction markets before you size up
Your first enemy isn’t the market. It’s your process. Paper trade it.
Read more →June 2026 · Polymarket
Wallet tracking without blind copy trading
Whale watching is research. Copying size you can’t match is how accounts die.
Read more →May 2026 · Polymarket
Five implied-probability mistakes on Polymarket
Your ‘edge’ disappears when you treat mid prices as free lunch. Here’s what to fix.
Read more →May 2026 · Kalshi
Kalshi event contracts: the basics that actually matter
Skip the hype. Learn the Kalshi mechanics that decide whether you have edge after costs.
Read more →May 2026 · AI
A practical Polymarket AI workflow (that isn’t a bot)
Stop searching for a magic Polymarket bot. Build a repeatable AI-assisted research workflow instead.
Read more →April 2026 · Guides
Welcome to the Polifly blog
We are building AI tools for prediction market traders. Here we share product updates and how we think about markets.
Read more →
Prefer long-form tutorials? See all Polifly guides or the free EV calculator.